It’s Week 4 of the NFL season, and I’ve got my top five plays for the weekend.
Let’s dive into these games.
Broncos at 49ers: Over 48
We’re going to start out Sunday in San Francisco as the Denver Broncos head out west to take on the 49ers.
On the Hard Rock Bet app, they’ve got the Niners as a three-point favorite, and the total is sitting at 48.
No defensive player is worth seven points, I know that, but look at what walks out the door with Nick Bosa not playing. When he plays, the Niners give up about 19 points a game. When he doesn’t, they give up 26.5. Quarterbacks are pressured about four out of every 10 times with Bosa on the field compared to three without him, while opponents go from four yards a carry with him to nearly five without him.
Dre Greenlaw is also questionable for the 49ers, at least as of this writing, and the guy backing up Greenlaw gives up almost three more yards every time the ball comes his way.
Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has been the best in football. Denver’s defense is good, but it just faced Kansas City, Jacksonville and the Rams, and it wasn’t like the Broncos did a great job of shutting those teams down from scoring points. I had the Denver defense rated better last year compared to this version.
As far as the Broncos offense goes, I’ve got them rated about average thus far. But against this defense without Bosa, average is more than enough to score points here.
My total in this game is set at 51.5 points, so I’m gladly going to take Over 48 in what I think should be one of the highest-scoring games of Week 4.
Pick: DEN/SF Over 48
Jets at Bears: Bears -3
Let’s move on to the New York Jets at the Chicago Bears. On the Hard Rock Bet app, they have this game at Bears -3 with the total at 42.5.
Last week on this segment, I called Case Keenum a yearbook photo. Then he went out Monday night and the Bears hung 27 on the Eagles, so I do owe Case an apology. And yes, I paid for it with my own money.
But here’s what I also got wrong: everybody treats Caleb Williams like he is the entire offense of the Bears. He’s a career 60% passer and is at 58.7% under Ben Johnson. What Williams brings to the table is his legs, but by my numbers, that’s only worth about two points a game.
It’s a decent drop-off, but keep in mind Keenum completed 71% of his passes against a good defense in Philadelphia. So my question is, are you not starting Keenum in this game again, or is Tyson Bagent going to get the call?
I’m not going to say the Bears defense is some sort of great stop unit either, because they’re not. It looked good versus bad offenses in bad-weather games with Minnesota and Philly.
The Jets are going to move the ball. Geno Smith, despite all his faults – and I’m a Jets fan, trust me, he’s got them – remains a very accurate passer. We’re seeing that now that he’s basically not running for his life behind an offensive line like he had with Las Vegas last year.
But the defenses Geno has faced include Tennessee, Green Bay and Detroit. What do all three have in common? They’re all below average, each and every one of them.
So I think the market has over-adjusted the Bears for Williams being out again. My number has the Bears by almost six points at home in this game, so I’ll gladly lay the three points with the Bears versus the New York Jets.
Pick: Bears -3
Rams at Eagles: Under 43
Game number three this week has the Los Angeles Rams heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Hard Rock Bet has the Rams as a 3.5-point road favorite with the total sitting at 43.
If you haven’t heard, this is who Jalen Hurts could be throwing the ball to in this game: not DeVonta Smith, who’s out with a hamstring, and not Dallas Goedert, who’s out with an MCL injury. Maybe not even Hollywood Brown will be available this week because he hasn’t practiced at all.
That could leave you with Dontayvion Wicks and rookie Makai Lemon. And if that doesn’t excite you, you can throw in Darius Cooper, who has been thrown the ball a total of 14 times in his career, along with 36-year-old tight end Zach Ertz, who’s only averaged about six yards a target since 2019. By comparison, Goedert is averaging nearly nine yards a catch.
This is not a real receiving group. This is a fantasy team somebody forgot to set.
The offense wasn’t working before anybody got hurt, either, and that was against three defenses that were below average. Philadelphia is going to try to run it more, which means the clock will keep moving.
The Rams should run it too, because the Eagles have been one of the worst teams in football at stopping the run this year. Their best linebacker, Zack Baun, is also dealing with a concussion from that Monday Night Football debacle versus Case Keenum.
Do not let the 30 points in Denver fool you about this Rams defense. The Broncos did not play well on offense that night, certainly in the first half. The defense is good, and Matthew Stafford likely won’t be handing points to the Eagles like he did to the Broncos.
My number makes this game around 41.5 total points. I lean the Rams at 3.5, even as a road favorite here with the hook, but I think the better bet is on the total. I’ll be looking to the Under.
Pick: Under 43
Cowboys at Texans: Texans -3
My fourth game this week is Dallas at Houston. Over at Hard Rock Bet, we’re looking at Houston as a three-point favorite at home with the total sitting at 48 points.
Houston is 0-3, just like they were a year ago, and we know they will have the best defense on the field at home Sunday. Yes, the Texans are giving up 25 points a game, but that is misleading when you look at who they’ve played: Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
All three games were indoors, no less, so they had fast tracks each and every time. This is about as tough a draw to start the season from a scheduling standpoint as a defense can get.
This Houston defense is getting off the field better than the one they had last year, and that group of defenders was ferocious. They were one of the best in the league.
The problem is Houston doesn’t have an offense. It’s been bad – like, really bad – especially against defenses that aren’t that great. I believe that’s the part of this game that’s going to change for Houston.
Nico Collins is back after missing the last two games, and he gets to go up against the worst defense in football. Dallas is a MASH unit on the defensive side and is banged up all over the place.
The Cowboys offense is good. Dak Prescott has the offensive side of the ball moving, and he certainly did in Brazil against the Ravens.
But at 0-3, Houston has been here and done this before. I will always take an elite defense at home to do the job here. And don’t forget, we watched the Giants defense handle business against this Dallas Cowboys team in Game 1.
I have this game Houston by 4.5, so I have no problem laying it with the Texans, who are going to be much better offensively this week than what we’ve seen.
Pick: Texans -3
Cardinals at Giants: Cardinals -2.5
That leaves us with game five: Arizona at the New York Giants. Hard Rock Bet has Arizona as a 2.5-point road favorite with the total sitting at 44.
Brian Burns, as we all know, is out for the season for the Giants. But I didn’t adjust anything for the Giants because of that loss.
Let’s not forget Burns had 16.5 sacks last year, but a lot of that had to do with Dexter Lawrence drawing more double teams than any interior lineman in football a year ago. Dexter Lawrence is in Cincinnati now, and before the injury this year, Burns had a total of three pressures and zero sacks.
In fact, the entire Giants defense has one sack, dead last in the league. They’re allowing 18.3 points a game, and that number is masking a ton of warts on this defense. Snap for snap, this is one of the worst defenses in football, and they’ve got five defensive backs now on injured reserve.
As for the Giants offense, Jameis Winston is better than he looked last week. I will give them that. Conditions were not good against the Tennessee Titans, but he is handing off to a running game averaging 3.9 yards a carry, which puts this offense near the bottom of my numbers here in the NFL.
Arizona is the opposite of that because Jacoby Brissett is the definition of a game manager. He’s completing 70% of his passes, averaging eight yards a completion and has only one interception.
Nobody in the NFL throws it to the other team less often than Jacoby Brissett. He throws it like he’s actually paying for the football himself.
The Cardinals defense? Yes, they’re not good. We know that. But they don’t need to be in order to win this game. They just have to be better than the Giants defense, and they are.
I’m going to ride with the road favorite in the Arizona Cardinals because I think the Giants are in big trouble.
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
Joe Raineri’s NFL Week 4 Picks
- Broncos-49ers Over 48
- Chicago Bears -3
- Rams-Eagles Under 43
- Houston Texans -3
- Arizona Cardinals -2.5
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