College Football Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Texas-Tennessee, Oregon-USC & More

Week 4 is here, and we’ve got a loaded slate to break down.

We’re going from Iowa-Michigan in the Big Ten to Texas-Tennessee in Knoxville, with plenty of SEC games and a huge Oregon-USC matchup mixed in.

Let’s get straight into the predictions.

Texas vs. Tennessee (+4.5)

Tennessee finally gets a real test at Neyland Stadium, but I’m siding with Texas in what I expect to be a defensive battle.

The Longhorns have the personnel up front to make Tennessee work for everything in the run game, and linebacker Rasheem Biles is another player the Vols have to account for around the football.

Prediction: Texas 20, Tennessee 17

For my complete breakdown of Arch Manning, Tennessee’s run game and the biggest X-factors in Knoxville, check out my full Texas vs. Tennessee preview.

Iowa vs. Michigan (-4.5)

This is going to be an absolute defensive battle.

Both defenses are insane on the stat sheet. You can pull up just about any defensive metric you want, and both of these teams are sitting well inside the top 10 nationally.

The only problem is the best offense either defense has played might be Oklahoma.

Offensively, neither team has given us much against Power Four competition. Michigan scored 17 points against Oklahoma, with one touchdown essentially set up by a turnover inside the 10. Iowa scored 16 against its lone Power Four opponent.

That makes turnovers and negative plays the key to this matchup. Which defense can create short fields for an offense that has struggled to consistently move the football?

Both teams are going to try to run it and keep pressure off the quarterback, but Michigan has one major difference: Bryce Underwood is part of the run game. He’s also starting to show some growth as a passer after going 19-of-25 for 223 yards without a turnover last week.

That’s why Underwood is my X-factor.

Iowa’s zone defense is one of the harder defenses in college football to throw against if you can’t anticipate tight windows. This is a tough test for a quarterback still learning how to consistently read the entire field.

I don’t expect many points, but I trust Michigan at home.

Prediction: Michigan 17, Iowa 16

Ole Miss (+3.5) vs. Florida

I’m sticking with one principle here: I’m not picking against Trinidad Chambliss until somebody gives me a reason to.

Florida has plenty of ways to create problems offensively, especially with Aaron Philo and Vernell Brown III, but Chambliss’ ability to extend plays gives Ole Miss a chance no matter what the scoreboard looks like.

Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Florida 31

For my complete breakdown of Chambliss, Florida’s offense and the biggest X-factors on both sides, check out my full Ole Miss vs. Florida preview.

South Carolina vs. Alabama (-12.5)

I’m done believing in LaNorris Sellers and Shane Beamer, and I don’t expect that to change against Alabama.

South Carolina has to find a way to slow down Bama’s run game, while Dylan Stewart needs to be healthy enough to make an impact up front. I also don’t expect another poor outing from Kane Wommack’s defense.

I think Bama gets them pretty big.

Prediction: Alabama 38, South Carolina 10

For my complete breakdown of South Carolina’s run defense, Stewart and why I’m expecting an Alabama bounce-back, check out my full South Carolina vs. Alabama preview.

Oregon vs. USC (+3.5)

My biggest question is pretty simple: do either of these defenses show up?

Oregon got shredded the last time it played a Power Four opponent, and USC just gave up 460 yards of offense to Rutgers. Everything we thought this matchup might look like before the season has basically been thrown out the window.

We expected Oregon to have a salty defense under Dan Lanning. Instead, both of these teams have already shown they can give up points to opponents they should have a talent advantage over.

In a game with this much offensive firepower, you might only need three or four legitimate defensive stops to win it.

My X-factor is whether Oregon has found USC’s offensive tells.

We’ve heard about the tendencies defenses have been able to pick up from Jayden Maiava and USC’s offensive line, whether it’s run-pass indicators or other pre-snap clues. At some point, USC has to clean those things up.

Oregon also has to deal with its own issues, especially with Jeremiah McClellan injured and more pressure falling on the rest of the receiver room.

I expect points and some chaos, but I’m taking Oregon to find enough stops to get out of Los Angeles with a win.

Prediction: Oregon 34, USC 31

Texas A&M vs. LSU (-9.5)

Both teams are coming off tough losses, but I have one major question about Texas A&M right now: what are the Aggies really good at?

The quarterback play hasn’t been great. They haven’t been dominant running the football. Defensively, they’ve been pushed around and have given up explosives.

That’s a tough way to enter a night game in Baton Rouge.

The biggest challenge is going to be eye discipline. If Texas A&M had trouble with that last week, LSU’s offense is going to test it even more. Lane Kiffin is going to force that secondary to communicate, stay disciplined and keep everything in front of it.

My X-factor for LSU is Dilin Jones.

There’s going to be plenty of attention on the passing game, but Jones has quietly put together a really strong start. He’s gone over 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games, including against Power Four competition.

If he can run the ball the way Kentucky was able to against Texas A&M, everything else LSU wants to do becomes easier.

A&M has some edge rushers who can cause problems, but LSU has an NFL player at left tackle in Jordan Seaton. I think LSU has too many advantages here, especially at home.

Prediction: LSU 38, Texas A&M 20

Missouri vs. Mississippi State (-6.5)

This is a completely different type of game.

Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State have been explosive offensively, and the amount of speed they have at receiver creates a major problem for Missouri.

You can’t just get in their faces and expect to run with these guys. You’re going to have to concede some underneath throws, which means this game becomes all about yards after the catch.

Missouri has to rally to the football and tackle.

If you don’t, Mississippi State can turn a five-yard completion into an explosive play in a hurry. That’s what they’ve been doing, and once that offense gets rolling, it’s difficult to get them off the field.

On the other side, Austin Simmons and Missouri’s passing game are going to get a legitimate test. Mississippi State has allowed plenty through the air statistically, but I don’t think that’s entirely a personnel issue. They’ve spent a lot of time playing with leads while opponents chase points.

My X-factors are Donovan Olugbode and Cayden Lee. This is a real test for Mississippi State’s secondary, and those two receivers are capable of creating problems if Simmons gets going.

I expect Missouri to score, but I think Mississippi State’s offense eventually becomes too much.

Prediction: Mississippi State 38, Missouri 27