No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 16 Mississippi State Picks, Predictions & Odds for Noon SEC Clash

Saturday’s trip to Starkville will give Alabama its first look at a Mississippi State program that has changed quite a bit since these teams last shared the field.

The SEC schedule kept the two programs apart in each of the last two seasons, but the series returns this weekend with considerably more at stake than many would have expected entering the year. No. 7 Alabama visits No. 16 Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium, with kickoff set for noon ET on ABC.

Alabama has handled everything in front of it through the first month of the season. The Crimson Tide opened with wins over Florida State and USF before putting up 50 points at Florida in their SEC opener and beating South Carolina 49-18 last Saturday.

Keelon Russell was at his best against the Gamecocks, throwing for 365 yards and four touchdowns while adding another score on the ground. Alabama has now scored at least 45 points in each of its first four games and enters October at 4-0.

Mississippi State’s September has been much more surprising. After beating ULM 62-13 and Minnesota 38-13, the Bulldogs opened conference play by digging out of a 16-point hole at South Carolina to win 41-34. They followed that comeback with another against then-No. 19 Missouri, turning a seven-point second-half deficit into a 31-24 victory in Starkville.

At the center of Mississippi State’s turnaround has been quarterback Kamario Taylor. The redshirt freshman has thrown for 1,192 yards and 14 touchdowns against only two interceptions through four starts, quickly emerging as one of the biggest breakout stars in college football.

Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns against Missouri, continuing a start that has helped push Mississippi State to No. 16 in the country and already within one win of matching its victory total from all of last season.

Alabama arrives at 4-0 as well, giving Mississippi State an immediate opportunity to see how its early-season surge holds up against one of the SEC’s premier programs. It will be the first Alabama-Mississippi State matchup since the Crimson Tide won 40-17 at Davis Wade Stadium in 2023.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds Today

The Crimson Tide are laying less than a touchdown on the road at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook:

• Point Spread: Alabama -5.5 (-110) | Mississippi State +5.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Alabama -225 | Mississippi State +180
• Total: Over 60.5 (-110) | Under 60.5 (-110)

Referenced odds subject to change.

Best Bet for Alabama vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State +5.5 (-110): Alabama has spent the better part of two decades turning this matchup into a formality. The Crimson Tide have beaten Mississippi State 16 consecutive times, and the last six meetings have all been decided by at least 23 points.

This is the first time in years, however, that I’m willing to take the points with the Bulldogs.

The obvious place to start is Kamario Taylor. He’s already established himself as one of college football’s biggest breakout stars, and Saturday gives him the type of opportunity that can showcase just how real his emergence has been. He has done most of his damage through the air, but his ability to escape pressure and create with his legs adds another problem for the Crimson Tide to account for.

More importantly, Mississippi State finally looks like it has made tangible progress under Jeff Lebby.

Lebby took over a program that went 2-10 in his first season in 2024, improved to 5-8 last year and now has the Bulldogs sitting at 4-0. Mississippi State hasn’t had a season like Dan Mullen’s 10-win 2014 campaign since, but this is at least starting to look like the best chance the program has had in years to become a factor in the SEC again.

Alabama remains the more talented team and has looked the part through four weeks, so there is no need to pretend this is suddenly an easy spot for Mississippi State. What has changed is how automatic Alabama has been when asked to win and cover away from Tuscaloosa. Since Kalen DeBoer took over in 2024, the Crimson Tide are just 4-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.

Mississippi State hasn’t been exceptional in the opposite role, either, going 4-5 ATS as a home underdog under Lebby. But many of those games came while he was still trying to rebuild a program that looks considerably further along now.

Saturday could also bring less-than-ideal conditions to Starkville, with rain and thunderstorms possible around kickoff. A wet afternoon doesn’t automatically favor either team, but a messy game could make it more difficult for Alabama to turn this into the type of runaway result we’ve become accustomed to seeing in this series.

That’s ultimately what I’m betting against at +5.5.

If Mississippi State’s 4-0 start is a sign that this program is truly ready to take another step under Lebby, this is the afternoon to prove it.

I’ll take the points in Starkville.

• Best Bet: Mississippi State +5.5 (-110)

Betting Splits at Hard Rock Bet

The action at Hard Rock Bet has largely landed on Alabama:

• Moneyline: Alabama has attracted 86.7% of moneyline bets and 83.3% of the money wagered.
• Spread: Alabama -5.5 is getting 58% of the wagers, but those wagers account for 67.7% of the spread handle.
• Total: Over 60.5 has collected 80.9% of the tickets and 87.1% of the dollars bet.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Game Info

• 🏟️ Location: Davis Wade Stadium – Starkville, Mississippi
• 📅 Date: Saturday, October 3
• ⏰ Start Time: 12 p.m. ET
• 📺 Where to Watch: ABC

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