College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions: ND-UNC, Florida-Mizzou & More

Let’s get into some Week 5 predictions, shall we?

Notre Dame (-21.5) vs. North Carolina

We watched Notre Dame on tape, and the run game, in my opinion, is currently being held back by running backs who are not maximizing carries.

At least in the Purdue game, which I believe statistically was one of their better rushing football games of the year, the running backs weren’t pressing the correct holes. They were either cutting back too early, not cutting back early enough or just not really hitting the right things at the running back position.

I think the offensive line is still really, really good. There’s been some suspect play in pass protection, particularly at right guard, but apart from that, their offense is absolutely eating zone coverage right now.

If you’re out there playing zone coverage against CJ Carr, you’re in for a long day. He’s going to shred you.

I will say this, though: if I were a Notre Dame football fan, I would be a little bit terrified that somebody is able to run man-to-man against us. Apart from Jordan Faison, I don’t really know if they have a guy who can get open against somebody like Texas, Georgia or maybe even Miami toward the end of the year. They’ve got some really, really good DBs as well.

That would be my primary concern right now: people bumping and running you and you’re not able to get open.

But if you’re out there playing zone, you’re going to die.

Defensively, Notre Dame is playing one of the more physical brands of football we’ve got going right now in college football.

Bryce Young and Boubacar Traore at defensive end are top-45-caliber football players, in my opinion. Young was asked to put on a bunch of weight and play interior defensive line last year, and he looked very uncomfortable being that heavy.

Now he’s back down around 260 pounds, he’s back in his natural position and he’s using all those God-given traits at defensive end.

Traore was already going into the year as a predicted first-round draft pick. The defensive tackles are good enough for my money, and the linebacking corps is absolutely stacked.

The name you need to know, if you don’t already, is Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa. KVA wears No. 27 for Notre Dame. He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, and he’s playing like it right now.

Leonard Moore is a DNT: do not try. We’ve known that. Apparently Purdue did not know that. They tried to attack him once, and after that it was basically, “All right, we get it.”

Adon Shuler at safety is a flat-out headhunter. That’s the other thing about this Notre Dame defense: it seems like a weekly occurrence that they’re scoring on the defensive side of the football.

The keys to the game for North Carolina are the defense doing everything it can to keep Notre Dame’s offense under 17 points, because you aren’t scoring 18, in my opinion. And don’t turn the football over. Good luck.

Notre Dame is one of the highest-execution-rate football teams I watch on tape every single year, particularly on the defensive side of the football. If you can’t respect the brand of football that they play, you’re wrong.

If you don’t respect their schedule, that’s fine. You can do that. But let’s not sit here and act like this is not a good football team. They are.

They play a really, really respectable brand of football. Their offensive coordinator calls plays that make sense. Their quarterback makes high-level NFL throws. Their defense is never out of a gap. They pursue the football and get it off the body of the ball carrier.

They do everything the right way.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, North Carolina 9

Alabama vs. Mississippi State (+5.5)

There is rain in the forecast all over the Southeast on Saturday.

Anytime it rains, the more pro-style offense probably lends itself to those conditions. If you’re an Air Raid, fun-and-gun, wide-choice offense, rain in the forecast is not ideal for you.

That being said, Kamario Taylor has about 13-inch hands, so he’ll probably be able to hold onto the ball.

I think the key to the matchup is which defense can actually hold up in the red zone.

Do you execute when you’re down there? Do you hold them to field goals when they get down there?

With the amount of explosive plays these two football teams create, they’re going to move the ball from 20 to 20. There is no doubt in my mind that these football teams are going to chunk it up.

Mississippi State is sixth in the country with 28 explosive plays of 20 yards or more. Alabama is 16th with 25.

These are two of the more explosive offenses through four games that we have in college football.

Once you get them down into the red area, you have to hold them to field goals.

Alabama has made 19 trips to the red area and scored every single time: 15 touchdowns and four field goals. Mississippi State has made 18 trips to the red zone with 12 touchdowns and four field goals, and they’ve been stopped twice.

They both get down there a lot.

Which defense can actually hold the other team to field goals will ultimately decide the outcome of this football game.

Unless it’s an absolutely torrential downpour, I expect a lot of points.

I think Mississippi State covers the spread, but Alabama wins.

Prediction: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 34

Ohio State (-14.5) vs. Iowa

The best offense Iowa has played through four games is Michigan, and they put up over 400 yards of total offense.

This is a whole different animal coming to town this weekend.

Ohio State’s offense is considerably better than anything Iowa has played to date, and I think the key to the matchup is specifically Jeremiah Smith versus zone coverage.

Everybody tries to bracket him. Everybody tries to play two over him. The problem is Ohio State is moving him all over the place.

Arthur Smith has done a really good job against zone coverages getting him matched up on safeties. It happened in the first half against Texas, and it certainly happened last week against Illinois.

It’s bad enough if you leave Jeremiah Smith one-on-one with a corner. It’s really bad if you let him get a 15-yard head start and step on the toes of a safety.

That isn’t good news, and Iowa is particularly known as a zone football team.

I expect Jeremiah Smith to get matched up quite a bit against safeties deep downfield, and he and Julian Sayin have been playing at a really high rate in those situations.

I’m terrified for what Jeremiah Smith is about to do to this zone football team.

At the same time, Ohio State has to establish the run.

We saw them struggle a little bit against Texas. If they can get a solid running game established, I feel like defenses from here on out are going to create an entire defensive plan around, “How the hell do we stop No. 4?”

What can we do to mitigate Jeremiah Smith?

If Ohio State can establish the run and play a balanced offensive game, maybe Jeremiah Smith doesn’t need to become Superman every week. Maybe they can lean on that run game and find their way to a win.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Iowa 13

Florida (-5.5) vs. Missouri

Florida has run the ball extremely effectively through the first four weeks of the season, and most of it has been on stretch.

They’ve been running the hell out of stretch.

Anybody know who in the SEC has run stretch the best prior to Florida this year? Missouri.

Eli Drinkwitz is a stretch demon. That’s what he runs. Stretch out of the pistol is their base play in the run game.

So who would know best how to try to stop the stretch run than Eli Drinkwitz and the Missouri Tigers?

I think the key, obviously, is that Missouri has to throw the ball at will.

Florida’s defense is currently ranked 113th in passing yards allowed per game. I don’t know if that’s because a lot of teams have been chasing. That could be part of it.

But they’ve allowed some explosive plays in the back end, and Eli and this offense have to be able to score with Florida.

I think that’s going to have to be on the back of Austin Simmons.

My X-factor is Missouri’s red-zone offense. Through four weeks, they’re 117th in the country in red-zone offense.

When you get down there this week, you better come away with six.

I really do think Florida might go throughout most of its schedule where the opponent says, “All right, today we’ve got to outscore them.”

Missouri is going to have to score this week.

The other issue is penalties. These are two of the most penalized football teams in college football right now. They’re the worst in the conference from a penalty standpoint. We’re probably going to see a sloppy one.

I can’t quite figure out what Florida’s deal is from a penalty standpoint, but I’ve always said stretch football teams are going to get called for holds. You’re fighting to get over the top of the blocker, the blocker grabs you, everybody is in space and the umpire can see it really well.

When you’re a duo football team or a counter football team and everything is hitting between the tackles, there are a lot of bodies in there and you can’t always see whether holds are happening.

But when you’re a stretch-based football team, you’re going to get called for a lot of holds.

I think Florida gets explosive plays, and they’re going to eat up the clock in the fourth quarter.

You’re going to have to stop the run. If you can’t do that, you’re going to die a slow death.

Prediction: Florida 38, Missouri 24

Auburn (+7.5) vs. Tennessee

This is a get-right football game for Tennessee’s offense.

I just got done watching Vanderbilt’s offense against Auburn’s defense. Auburn looked like themselves again on Saturday. They were flying around, wreaking havoc and getting in the backfield.

The key to this matchup for me is how many different ways DJ Durkin can challenge the lack of athleticism that Tennessee’s offensive line has.

I think the Perry kid at right tackle is playing out of position. I think he’s a good football player, but he’s a guard masquerading as a tackle right now in this conference, and people pick on him a little bit with twitchy rushers.

Auburn has a few of those.

David Sanders Jr. is a tremendous football player over at left tackle. That’s about it.

The interior of that offensive line right now is not very good for Tennessee. It’s a major concern for me going into this one.

For that reason, the X-factor for me is Josh Heupel and his staff.

You have deficiencies that were exposed. If you didn’t know that going into the Texas matchup, we saw some of it against Kennesaw State. They were turning edges on that offensive line at a high rate.

You have to dust off the portion of your playbook that I call the help-me plays.

You’ve got to help this quarterback out at a much better rate.

Faizon Brandon had 29 pass attempts last week, plus 10 sacks and almost double-digit scramble attempts. That means you dropped your freshman quarterback back more than 40 times against the No. 1 team in college football.

That’s too much of a burden for a first round draft pick as a junior, much less a true freshman in his fourth career start.

Against a quality Auburn defense, Tennessee has to help this kid out a lot more.

Obviously, they have to be able to run the football. That goes without saying. But they also have to get him confident touches.

You can’t constantly ask him on third-and-12 to go win the down. That’s way too much for a true freshman quarterback.

You’ve got to help him out. I think Tennessee finds a way to win.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Auburn 20